By Mark David Blum, Esq.

This time, unlike so many others, I am not going to get caught short and not be able to prove up a prediction I made a long time ago.

It has been more than a year that I have been telling people and forecasting that the United States is gearing up to start another war and open another military front. I see the eye-rolls and hear the “yeah, sure”. In my heart, I know I am seeing a very dangerous situation. Moreso I am concerned that this conflict and the death and destruction it will wrought is being timed for the upcoming Presidential election.

Yesterday, someone else made the very same prediction. None other than the Moonie rag Washington Times announced how “South America was on the brink of war yesterday as Venezuela and Ecuador amassed troops on the Colombian border”. Hugo Chavez is threatening war with Columbia and ordered tank battalions and airborne units to the border. The match was lit when Columbian troops raided and killed a Guerilla leader in Ecuador. Said Hugo Chavez to Columbia, “Don't be thinking that you can do that here ... because it would be extremely serious and would be a causa belli, a cause for war”.

Say what you will, when both the Washington Times and I agree on something, there must be more to the story.

“On April 17, 2002 Defense officials announced the establishment of U.S. Northern Command to be headquartered in the Washington vicinity, with responsibility for homeland security. NORAD transfered all command and functional responsibilities, including Operation Noble Eagle, to Northern Command by 01 October 2002. The command's area of responsibility covers the continental United States, Alaska, Canada, Mexico and surrounding water out to 500 miles. The new command is tasked with defense planning and security cooperation for other nations in its area of responsibility. US Southern Command remained responsible for contingency planning, operations, security and force protection for Cuba, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, and the Turks and Caicos. The command's mission is the preparation for, prevention of, deterrence of, preemption of, defense against, and response to threats and aggression directed towards U.S. territory, sovereignty, domestic population, and infrastructure; as well as crisis management, consequence management, and other domestic civil support.” (Pentagon Press Briefing, April 17, 2002).

At the same time, our government is reaching back into history and ”mulling” the resurrection of the Fourth Fleet. This famed Nazi sub hunting naval force has been mothballed since the 1950’s. Today, it is being rev’d up for action in South America.

Then, there is a fast and harsh change in rhetoric from Washington. In November of 2007 Blackwater was granted a $15 Billion contract to get out of Iraq and shift its operations to Latin America and engage in the War on Drugs. Much of our tax money is being invested in Plan Columbia and now Blackwater via support of the the Columbian military in its efforts at eradicating the drug growing operations.

In January of 2008, Kent Lundgren, chairman of the 800-member National Association of Former Border Patrol Officers (NAFBPO) comes out publicly pleading for help. “What we face is more of a challenge than law enforcement can be expected to cope with. The best solution is for the U.S. military to assume armed positions along the border ... and use whatever force is necessary to control the border zone.” According to the border patrol, the situation along the Mexican American border has experienced violence at a military level. It is all about the Drug War mixed with politics. This call for a military buildup along the American border is a very dangerous precedent.

Just like pre-war Iraq or actually more akin to pre-War with the Kaiser; there has been a political marriage that shall beget an evil child. There is the issue of illegal immigration and closing the borders. Married to that now is the growing militarization of the War on Drugs and the soldiers patrolling the Southern border. Throw in a Presidential election, an internal competing amongst minority constituencies – Hispanic and Black – for national attention, and Democrats running fear commercials, and the stage is set.

Meanwhile, so-called ’Leftist Rebels’ at war with Columbia’s military have been hiding out in Venezuela. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez considers these rebels “an insurgency”; a native force fighting off an invader. Last month, according to the Associated Press, it was reported that “hundreds or even thousands of Colombian insurgents are in Venezuela at any given time”.

At the same time, things are heating up between Nicaragua and Columbia. Ignited over fishing rights, it should have been resolved politically. Instead, the Nicaraguan government ignored the ruling of an international tribunal and drew a line in the sand. Instead, a new military alliance was forged. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega is quoted as saying that, “Whoever touches Nicaragua touches Venezuela, and whoever touches Venezuela touches Nicaragua.”

In all this mounting chaos and tension, the only person not yet heard from is Evo Morales President of Bolivia. Luxuriating in his new found friendship with Iran, Bolivia seems to be shunning the United States and the War on Drugs. But not Hugo Chavez. According to the American government, “I think it is about time to face up to the fact that President Chavez is becoming a major facilitator of the transit of cocaine to Europe and other parts of this hemisphere.”

If South America is on the brink of war, then so too is the United States. With almost 300,000 of our finest soldiers and our best equipment 10,000 miles away, this may be a war over before we get to fire a shot. Just the slightest move from Iran could keep our forces locked in place while South America explodes.

Sincerely, I hope I am wrong. My instincts tell me we stand now at a precipice and unless swift political action is taken, all that we know is going to change forever. But as with the Kaiser or 9/11 … it wont take much to trigger our involvement in a Southern Hemisphere theater of operations. We haven’t many friends left down there. Absent a massive overreaction, we certainly do not have the military might to defend ourselves here.

Our Pentagon promises and assures us we can fight a two front war. I can accept that. But in addition to the pot stirring going on in Latin America, China has flooded the Taiwan Straits with submarines. Our fleet is constantly being taunted by China.

I, for one, am concerned. I fear my government may be stirring the pot in Columbia and attempt a Noriega-esque pre-emptive attack. Our military and government seems to be getting ready. I am not so sure we are politically ready to see the real domino theory in practice.